Our Views Along 30 Experts on the Virtual Goods Market 2010

Engage Digital Media asked over 30 experts to contribute views on the virtual goods market 2010, asking them 5 questions. Here are the ideas share by +8*. The 30+ pages report is free to download here. Article on Virtual Goods News is here. Great complement to our previous column “Is Virtual Real?“.

1. What are your top three trend predictions for the virtual goods sector in 2010?

• Virtual goods expand beyond online games, social games and virtual worlds to be used in various online media properties. Virtual currencies being a combination of “prepaid credit” and “mileage”, it is actually old practices in new media.
• More people wake up to the fact that selling 100% replicable pixels for dollars is more profitable than selling black sugar water.
• Global virtual goods market over USD 10 billion: the US market was about $1B in 2009 and our estimated for Asia was a conservative $7B. Factor in growth in US (maybe $2B next year) + Asia ($9B?) + rest of the world and we’re there easily.
• Virtual goods go mobile too. Thanks to its 95% penetration of 3G and widespread data plans, Japan already has 2 mobile SNS making hundreds of millions with virtual goods (GREE and Mobile Game Town) and even another with an open mobile platform (Mixi). There is no reason why other countries can’t replicate this success, especially with Flash spreading on mobile.

2. What challenges do you expect 2010 to bring for the virtual goods industry?

• Many people still don’t “get” the fact that virtual goods are consumer goods.
• Maybe starting to regulate legal issues with virtual goods, from convertibility to consumer protection.

5. Who are the one or two companies or individuals you think are most likely to have the greatest impact on the virtual goods sector in 2010 and why?

• Tencent in China should make close to 2 bln USD, most of it via virtual goods, in 2009. They could make 3 billion USD in 2010 and are entering cautiously Western markets with LOTS of experience.
• Regulation on virtual goods could start getting in the way.